investing – Scott Social Media Allen https://scottsocialmediaallen.com Social media is my middle name. I wrote a couple of books about it. Wed, 14 Dec 2016 20:01:58 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6.1 Keep Calm and Hold Long https://scottsocialmediaallen.com/keep-calm-and-hold-long/ https://scottsocialmediaallen.com/keep-calm-and-hold-long/#respond Mon, 24 Aug 2015 14:27:01 +0000 https://scottsocialmediaallen.com/?p=1735 Keep Calm and Hold LongThe stock market is a panic this morning, but you don’t have to be. There are two simple truths you need to keep in mind:

1. Contrary to popular opinion and a few magazine pundits, deflation is NOT bad and doesn’t stifle economic growth. It is, as prominent Austrian school economist Philipp Bagus put it, “a fast, smooth, direct, and ethical way to a sound financial system.” This is the free market doing its job to correct the inflationary interventionism of governments around the world. It may be painful, but even if so, it is the lesser of two evils. If we don’t go ahead and pop the bubble, it will eventually explode — hyperinflation, and that is far worse. Let the market do its job and just ride it out.

2. Time in the market is much more important than timing the market. If you’re in it for the long haul, i.e., retirement or wealth creation, not a quick buck, then riding it out is the best tactic. Think about it — where else are you going to put your money? What other investment isn’t going to feel the ripple effect of the stock market plunge? It’s kind of like changing lanes on the freeway — you’re really probably better off just staying in your lane. Even if occasionally that may not turn out best, the thing is — you have no way of knowing it. You have to stick with the odds, and the odds are, you’re better off holding long. Historically, the people who have sold off in a crash are the ones who lose their money long-term.

So do whatever it takes today to calm yourself down, chill out, and go invest in yourself — that’s something that always pays great dividends.

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Herbalife bounces back as savvy investors go long https://scottsocialmediaallen.com/herbalife-bounces-back-as-savvy-investors-go-long/ https://scottsocialmediaallen.com/herbalife-bounces-back-as-savvy-investors-go-long/#comments Wed, 02 Jan 2013 23:32:21 +0000 https://scottsocialmediaallen.com/?p=1347 Ackman’s short of Herbalife (NYSE:HLF) shows he simply doesn’t understand direct selling.

Bill Ackman represents the very worst of Wall Street. Not only is he attacking a legitimate company that employs thousands of people and generates part-time incomes for over 2 million independent distributors around the world, he has the unmitigated gall to style himself as a protector of the people in doing so.

His whole premise is based on the mistaken idea that Herbalife is an illegal pyramid scheme. If you really want to explore that issue, I recommend reading the FAQs on MLM Companies that Herbalife includes on their investor relations site. And even if the FTC were to take issue with some aspect of Herbalife’s compensation plan, it certainly wouldn’t be the end of the company, just as it wasn’t the end of Amway. Or Google. Or Microsoft. Take a look some time at all the companies that have had problems with the FTC before thinking that it’s the harbinger of death for an MLM company.

What’s most appalling about Ackman, though, isn’t his ignorance, but his hypocrisy. When you start digging, you find all sorts of interesting things, like his past defense of MLM when his fund was an investor in Pre-Paid Legal; his recent investments in JCP and Target, struggling retailers facing growing competition from direct sellers in the fashion, beauty and home products markets; the fact that he bet the farm ($1 Billion — with a “B”) on “driving Herbalife to zero”; and his 2009 character defense of his friend Ezra Merkin, who was charged with civil fraud by the State of New York for secretly steering $2.4 billion in client money into Bernie Madoff’s Ponzi scheme. Follow the money.

Fortunately, HLF is bouncing back, Herbalife is going on the offensive, and many other investors are going long on HLF. It appears Ackman may lose his bet…or not.

See, the thing is, Ackman doesn’t actually have to drive Herbalife to zero to make money. According to The New York Times, Ackman “is already up a couple of hundred million dollars”. And for what? For publicizing an ignorant, misguided attack on a company. He doesn’t create anything in the process. No jobs. No products. No real value.

And in the current economic climate, who does that serve?

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